A key challenge for the large scale adoption of solar power is the intermittent nature of the energy resource. This project will contribute to the successful integration of high levels of intermittent solar power generation into the Australian electricity industry through advanced weather and climate forecasting tools.

The ability of solar technologies to become competitive with conventional sources of energy depends on successful grid integration. Integration costs become an increasingly significant component of overall costs as renewable penetration increases. This project combines forecasting with strategies to manage high levels of solar and wind penetration. The value of the energy technology to the National Electricity market (NEM) will be improved by forecasting, which in turn will lead to improved cost effectiveness.

Solar radiation is highly variable across daily and seasonal cycles and is also influenced by factors such as absorption and scattering by clouds, water vapour, dust and pollutants.

The project will explore the relationship between predictable weather patterns and the generation characteristics of key intermittent solar renewable technologies. Identifying the occurrence and duration of events that reduce solar irradiation will lead to site suitability metrics for solar technologies as well as support the development of a real time forecasting scheme for solar generation system output.

Different modelling techniques will be utilised to predict future weather for a range of timescales. This information will enable the development of techniques for deriving aggregated forecasts. Forecasting models will be explored that estimate the implications of large scale renewable generation scenarios in electricity networks, thereby enhancing their value as a deliverable power technology.

Fact sheet: Characterising and forecasting grid connected solar energy (PDF 304KB)